Mundial de Fórmula 1
Futebol Nacional
Brasileiro - Série A
Brasileiro - Série B
Brasileiro - Série C
Copa do Brasil
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Taça Libertadores da América
Futebol de Seleções
Copa das Confederações
Eliminatórias - América do Sul
Eliminatórias - CONCACAF
Eliminatórias - Europa
Eliminatórias - Ásia
Eliminatórias - África
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NEWSLETTER CHANCE DE GOL
JUNE/2013


FIFA Confederations Cup 2013: Brazil, Mexico, Spain and Uruguay are the favourites to reach the tournament semifinals:

Team Probability of qualification
Brazil 95.7 %
Mexico 51.0 %
Spain 92.4 %
Uruguay 56.8 %
Nigeria 50.2 %
see more

Campeonato Brasileiro 2013 - Série A: São Paulo are the most likely to win the title, Cruzeiro, Botafogo and Atlético MG are the most probable qualified to Taça Libertadores and Bahia, Náutico, Vasco and Vitória are the most probable relegated to Série B:

Team Probability of win the title
São Paulo 30.7 %
Cruzeiro 25.1 %
Botafogo 18.5 %
Atlético MG 11.2 %
Corinthians 8.8 %
 
Team Probability of qualification
to Taça Libertadores
São Paulo 68.6 %
Cruzeiro 62.3 %
Botafogo 53.5 %
Atlético MG 39.4 %
Corinthians 35.3 %
 
Team
Probability of relegation
Bahia 98.8 %
Náutico 87.3 %
Vasco 71.7 %
Vitória 36.4 %
Portuguesa 35.6 %
Flamengo 26.8 %
see more

Campeonato Brasileiro 2013 - Série B: Palmeiras is the most probable winner, Atlético GO, Joinville and Chapecoense complete the group of most likely promoted to Série A and Boa, ASA, América RN and ICASA are the most probable relegated to Série C:

Team Probability of win the title
Palmeiras 49.2 %
Atlético GO 38.8 %
Joinville 5.1 %
 
Team Probability of promotion
Palmeiras 49.2 %
Atlético GO 38.8 %
Joinville 5.1 %
Chapecoense 2.9 %
Figueirense 2.8 %
Paraná 0.7 %
 
Team
Probability of relegation
Boa 77.5 %
ASA 58.2 %
América RN 54.5 %
ICASA 50.5 %
Paysandu 49.9 %
América MG 43.9 %
Guaratinguetá 30.3 %
see more

Campeonato Brasileiro 2013 - Série C: Brasiliense, Santa Cruz, CRB, Fortaleza, Mogi Mirim, Madureira, CRAC and Caxias are currently the most likely to play the competition finals and Águia de Marabá, Baraúnas, Barueri and Guarani are the most probable relegated to Série D:

Time Probability of qualification
Brasiliense 77.5 %
Santa Cruz 74.1 %
CRB 64.9 %
Fortaleza 50.9 %
Luverdense 44.1 %
Sampaio Corrêa 38.5 %
Mogi Mirim 99.98 %
Madureira 65.3 %
CRAC 50.1 %
Caxias 49.5 %
 
Time Probability of relegation
Águia de Marabá 98.8 %
Baraúnas 45.8 %
Treze 18.9 %
Barueri 60.1 %
Guarani 34.0 %
Betim 26.8 %
Macaé 22.5 %
ver mais

Copa do Brasil 2013: Criciúma, Internacional, Santos, Botafogo, Goiás, Flamengo, Cruzeiro, Atlético PR, Ponte Preta and Fortaleza are the clubs with largest probability of reach the 1/8 finals of the cup and Náutico, Coritiba, Bahia, Portuguesa, Vitória, Sport, Ponte Preta e Atlético PR are the likely qualified to Copa Sul-Americana.:

Team Probability of qualification
to 1/8 finals
Criciúma 92.4 %
Internacional 88.8 %
Santos 88.0 %
Botafogo 87.8 %
Goiás 86.6 %
Flamengo 86.3 %
Cruzeiro 60.1 %
Atlético PR 55.2 %
Ponte Preta 52.8 %
Fortaleza 52.5 %
Luverdense 47.5 %
 
Time Probability of qualification
to Copa Sul-Americana
Náutico 100.00 %
Coritiba 100.00 %
Bahia 99.97 %
Portuguesa 99.8 %
Vitória 88.8 %
Sport 66.2 %
Ponte Preta 52.8 %
Atlético PR 42.8 %
Cruzeiro 39.9 %

See here explanations about the new criteria of qualifying to Copa Sul-Americana.
see more

Taça Libertadores da América 2013: Atlético Mineiro is the most likely club to win the championship:

Team Probability of title
Atlético Mineiro 60.0 %
Santa Fé 26.2 %
see more

World Cup 2014 Qualifying - South America: Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela are the most probable South American representatives in the 2014 Brazil World Cup, while Chile is the most likely team to play the intercontinental requalifying play-off:

Country Probability of direct qualification
Argentina 100.00 %
Colombia 99.8 %
Ecuador 99.2 %
Venezuela 48.4 %
Chile 41.4 %
 
Country
Probability of play the intercontinental play-off
Chile 38.2 %
Venezuela 29.7 %
Peru 15.6 %
Uruguay 13.5 %
see more

World Cup 2014 Qualifying - CONCACAF: Mexico, USA and Honduras are the most likely teams to be directly qualified to 2014 World Cup, and Panama is the team with highest probability of play the intercontinental requalifying play-off:

Country Probability of direct qualification
Mexico 86.8 %
USA 69.2 %
Honduras 50.2 %
Costa Rica 44.9 %
 
Country
Probability of play the intercontinental play-off
Panama 23.8 %
Costa Rica 22.8 %
Honduras 21.8 %
see more

World Cup 2014 Qualifying - Europe: Belgium, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Russia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, England and Spain are the most likely countries to win a direct berth to the World Cup:

Team Probability of qualification
Belgium 54.2 %
Croatia 45.8 %
Italy 84.6 %
Germany 94.5 %
Netherlands 99.92 %
Switzerland 92.6 %
Russia 94.8 %
Bosnia-Herzegovina 88.0 %
England 72.4 %
Montenegro 17.7 %
Spain 85.5 %
see more

World Cup 2014 Qualifying - Asia: South Korea, Uzbekistan, Japan and Australia are the most likely countries to win a direct berth to the World Cup:

Team Probability of qualification
South Korea 92.1 %
Uzbekistan 70.3 %
Japan quase 100 %
Australia 69.6 %
see more

World Cup 2014 Qualifying - Africa: South Africa, Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Congo, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Cameroon and Senegal are the most likely countries to be qualified to the Playoffs:

Team Probability of qualification
South Africa 54.8 %
Ethiopia 33.4 %
Tunisia 89.4 %
Ivory Coast 91.5 %
Ghana 69.0 %
Zambia 31.0 %
Congo 60.2 %
Burkina Faso 31.8 %
Nigeria 79.5 %
Egypt 94.8 %
Algeria 50.6 %
Mali 46.2 %
Cameroon 66.4 %
Senegal 56.6 %
see more

Formula One 2013: Sebastian Vettel is the most probable champion of the season:

Driver Probability of title
Sebastian Vettel 95.0 %
Fernando Alonso 3.0 %
see more

Rankings Chance de Gol: Bayern München stands on the leadership of the Worldwide Clubs Ranking and Spain continues in the first place of the Worldwide Nations Ranking. In the Brazilian Ranking, Cruzeiro hits the top of the sheet:

Brazilian Clubs Ranking
CRUZEIRO 1.2943
São Paulo 1.2338
Atlético MG 1.1850
Botafogo 1.1803
Corinthians 1.1152
see more
 
Worldwide Clubs Ranking
BAYERN MÜNCHEN 6.5317
Real Madrid 5.9950
Borussia Dortmund 5.9396
Arsenal 5.7480
Valencia 5.4323
see more
 
Worldwide Nations Ranking
SPAIN 11.5261
Colombia 11.4875
Brazil 11.4850
Argentina 11.3863
Germany 11.1786

 

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CONCACAF Gold Cup
Campeonato Brasileiro - Série D

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These and many other analyses of soccer facts through mathematics and statistics can be found in the site CHANCE DE GOL (http://www.chancedegol.com.br), mantained by a Doctor in Statistics by USP, with experience in studying and making of fixtures, regulations, structures and historical data banks of sport competitions, as well as other contents, like development of rankings of all-time teams. If you want to have regularly the statistics of CHANCE DE GOL ar any other of these products in your newspaper, magazine, site, TV or radio program, please contact the e-mails chancedegol@chancedegol.com.br or mlarruda@terra.com.br

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